IMD predicts warmer November across India
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New Delhi: Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of India in November, except for some regions along the foothills of the Himalayas where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are expected, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday in its monthly forecast.It also stated that during the month, above-normal minimum temperatures are expected over most parts of the country, except in many parts of central and eastern India where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.The IMD noted that in November, below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except for some areas in central, northwest, and Northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.India as a whole is likely to witness 77 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the month.LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years. The LPA of rainfall over the country during the month of November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 29.7 mm.South Peninsular India is also likely to experience 77 per cent of LPA during November. The LPA of rainfall over the region during November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is around 118.7 mm, according to the IMD.The department highlighted that currently, very strong El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.The latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) and other global climate model forecasts indicate that very strong El Nino conditions are likely during November-December.El Nino is one of the three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead.While El Nino is known to have a warming effect over the planet, its opposite phase, La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect. ENSO also has a neutral phase.Very strong El Nino conditions could be one of the key reasons why during this year's October, India witnessed the highest monthly average maximum temperature (32.43 degrees Celsius) since 1901. The normal monthly average maximum temperature for October is 31.37 degrees Celsius, according to the IMD.Moreover, the monthly average minimum temperature during this October was the fifth highest (20.83 degrees Celsius) since 1901. The normal monthly average minimum temperature for October is 20.01 degrees Celsius.
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